AM
Automotive
Strategy for a market that re-prices every quarter.
Most strategy work in this industry is a year old by the time it is presented. Registrations move monthly, cell prices move weekly, and a tariff line can rewrite a business case overnight.
We work at the speed the market actually moves, beside the people who have to commit capital to it.
What we work on
Market and country entry
Where demand is going, what it costs to serve it, and which markets are worth the licence, the network and the working capital. Italy, Switzerland, the rest of Europe and China, and the routes between them.
Product and powertrain
Which segments to defend, which to concede, and what the cost curve does to that answer over the next three model years.
Network and aftersales
Dealer economics from the dealer's side of the P&L: throughput, absorption, and what happens to service revenue when the parc electrifies.
Competitive response
What a new entrant can actually do (capacity, homologation, network) rather than what its press release says it will do.
05
How a mandate runs
The timetable is set with you before we start: it depends on the question, and on how much of the data already exists.
- 01
Frame
One question, written down, that the work has to answer. If we cannot write it, the mandate is not ready to start.
- 02
Base
Registrations, price lists, filings, capacity. We rebuild the picture from sources rather than accepting the received one.
- 03
Field
Interviews with operators, dealers and suppliers. This is where the desk view usually breaks.
- 04
Model
A business case you can run yourself, with the two or three assumptions that actually decide the answer isolated and labelled.
- 05
Decide
A decision memo: the call we would make, the price of being wrong, and what would change our mind.
When people call us
- A board has asked for a market entry case and nobody trusts the demand numbers.
- A supplier's largest customer has just announced a platform change.
- A dealer group is deciding whether to re-sign, sell, or consolidate.
What you get
- 01A decision memo with our recommendation, not a menu of options
- 02The model, with your team able to run it without us
- 03The source pack: every number traced to where it came from
- 04One working session with the people who have to act on it
Questions about the market, answered with sources
- How much of the European car market do Chinese brands hold?
On ACEA figures, the combined EU market share of BYD, Chery, SAIC and Leapmotor rose from 5.7% in the first quarter of 2026 to 7.5% in the second and 7.8% in July and August. In July and August the EU registered 57,844 more cars than a year earlier, and those four groups added 66,080: everyone else, taken together, went backwards.
In the summer, four Chinese groups grew more than Europe's entire car market- Is the European car market growing in 2026?
EU new car registrations rose 5.3% between January and August 2026, according to ACEA, but almost all of the growth went to four Chinese groups and Tesla. By our calculations on ACEA figures, every other manufacturer together added 50,881 cars over the same months, or 0.7%.
Europe's car market grew 5.3%. For those already in it, 0.7%.- Why is Italian car production falling?
Italy built 238,000 passenger cars in 2025, down 19.8% on 2024 (ANFIA), while Germany, Spain, Czechia, Slovakia and Romania all moved between minus 5.7% and plus 7.7%. The fall is national, not European: the Volkswagen plant in Bratislava alone built 336,905 vehicles in 2025 (ZAP). For a supplier, the useful question is at what volume the business breaks even, and how far that sits from 238,000.
One Slovak plant builds more cars than all of Italy- Are electric car residual values in Europe at risk?
Private EV demand in Europe moves with the purchase grant, which makes registrations a weak basis for residual value assumptions. After Italy's purchase bonus closed on 30 June 2026, the pure electric share fell from 10.1% in June to 6.4% in August (UNRAE). Ayvens reported a net used car sales result of minus 8 million euros in the second quarter of 2026, against plus 143 million a year earlier.
Europe's EV market is a fleet contract, not demand- Is a Chinese brand mandate worth taking for a European dealer?
It depends on aftersales more than on first-year showroom volume: certified workshops, parts held in Europe and diagnostic tool licences decide whether the brand sells a second car. In a survey presented by Wolk After Sales Experts at AMR in March 2025, 25% of German workshops and dealers said they were willing to work with Chinese brands, against 38% in 2023.
The workshop sells the second car, not the showroom
Reading on this practice
- 8 min read
In Paris Stellantis showed six concepts. The one that matters already has a price and a plant.
At the Paris show Stellantis brings the 2CV, Fiat Grizzly and Multiplay, Alfa Romeo Cuorerosso. Only one has a price, a date and a plant: Pomigliano.
- 6 min read
In the summer, four Chinese groups grew more than Europe's entire car market
In July and August the EU registered 57,844 more cars. Four Chinese groups added 66,080. Everyone else, taken together, went backwards.
- 6 min read
Europe's car market grew 5.3%. For those already in it, 0.7%.
From January to August the EU registered 378,415 more cars. Four Chinese groups took 72% of them. For almost everyone else the market stood still.
Start a conversation
Tell us what you have to decide
The useful first email is short and specific. A deadline helps more than a brief. Write before you are ready: the later we arrive, the fewer terms are still yours to set.
We reply to every email, as quickly as we can.
- 01The decision in front of you, in one sentence
- 02The date it has to be made by
- 03What you have already looked at