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Insights

The thinking, in full

One argument about the industry at a time, with the numbers attached and the sources named. Written here first, then cut short for LinkedIn.

10 min read

The car industry changes hands one small deal at a time

Global deal value is a handful of megadeals. In Europe 49 deals moved 1,039 franchise points in a year, and 92% of the buyers were already at home.

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12 min read

Volkswagen is not the story. Germany's cost structure is.

Volkswagen sold 13.5 cars per employee in 2025. Toyota sold 29.0. China did not build that gap, it only stopped paying for it.

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11 min read

Europe's EV market is a fleet contract, not demand

Fleets take most of Europe's new EVs and private used demand is thinner than the registrations suggest. The residual value guarantee decides who pays.

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11 min read

Cassino is not being rescued. It is being let out.

Stellantis runs its European plants at 46% and Cassino worked 16 days in a quarter. A Chinese partner does not fix that. It rents it.

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14 min read

China is not flooding Europe. It is filtering it.

BYD shelved Turkey and is building Hungary. Chinese plants are not a wave across Europe. They are a filter, and it sorts jurisdictions.

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12 min read

The workshop sells the second car, not the showroom

A new brand arrives twice: first as volume, then as an official warranty and a workshop network. The second arrival is the one that counts.

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7 min read

Italy is losing dealer owners, not dealerships

Points of sale rose 2%. Independent owners fell by about 40%. Thin margins are not the cause: they stopped hiding how the business was actually run.

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